Incumbent president Muhammadu Buhari

Millions of Nigerians will today cast votes to elect their next president and representatives for the next four year. Nigeria with a population of 180 million people is Africa’s biggest democracy.

The vote was postponed last week few hours before polling stations opened due to what the electoral commission described as logistical issues. However, officials believe that today’s vote will go ahead.

A decent turnout is expected, with more than 86% of voting cards having been collected by those registered to cast their ballots.

Who is in contention?

The election looks set to be a close race between the two main contenders.

President Muhammadu Buhari

President Muhammadu Buhari, 76, is seeking a second term, having taken office in 2015.

He has been campaigning on an anti-corruption platform, bolstered by what he says is evidence of significant economic growth under his leadership.

The Nigerian economy grew by 2.4% in the fourth quarter of 2018 and GDP went up by 1.93%, which he says has given voters “lots of cause to cheer”.

He wants to introduce further economic reforms if he wins, which are focused on infrastructure development and an expansion of a social welfare programme designed to create jobs and help people out of poverty.

But there have been worries about his own health since he spent more than 150 days abroad for unspecified medical treatment, forcing him to bizarrely deny rumours he had died and been replaced by a clone.

Atiku Abubakar

His closest rival is Atiku Abubakar, 72, a billionaire businessman and former vice president who has promised to create jobs, privatise the state oil company and double the size of the economy to $900bn (£692bn) by 2025.

The People’s Democratic Party (PDP) candidate also wants to devolve more power to the different regions of Nigeria, which he says would allow them to keep more of the money they generate.

He has faced corruption allegations since his time in office from 1999 to 2007, which he denies.

What are the key issues?

The promise by Abubakar to privatise the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation is a significant one.

Nigeria is the top oil producer in Africa and relies on crude oil sales for 90% of foreign trade earnings and more than 60% of total government revenue.

Militant attacks on oil facilities helped push Nigeria into recession in 2016 – the first it had endured in 25 years.

The risk of further strikes means that security will be another big factor in the minds of voters.

Insurgent group Boko Haram remains a threat, having killed more than 20,000 people and forced around two million to flee since it emerged a decade ago.

In what could be a key development, Abubakar has won the endorsement of the Niger Delta Avengers militant group, which has vowed to cripple the economy if Buhari is re-elected.The group supports his devolution policy and commitment to continuing an amnesty programme in the oil-rich coastal area, which gives stipends to former militants who have long argued that the impoverished region should receive a greater share of the national energy wealth.

Concerns about corruption are also high and many are worried about possible election rigging, while the government has even started its own “anti-fake news” campaign.

Is there a favourite?

Nigeria is so divided that its elections are tough to call, especially after an unprecedented result last time.

Goodluck Jonathan became the first Nigerian president to lose a bid for re-election in history, but Mr Buhari could follow suit if his approval ratings are anything to go by.

They dropped to a four-year low of 36% in October, down from a previous high of 80%.

One of the most fundamental rifts in the country is between the mainly Muslim north and the largely Christian south, and the population is fairly evenly split between the religions.

It means there is an unofficial power-sharing agreement forcing the presidency to alternate between the north and south, which was represented by Mr Jonathan.

Mr Buhari and Mr Abubakar are both from the north, where the president is popular, but the south generally votes in favour of PDP candidates.

The PDP took power in 1999 after decades of military rule and held on until Mr Buhari won in 2015.

Pollsters are predicting that the diverse hinterland states known as the Middle Belt, where there have been clashes between farmers and herders could prove decisive.

Most of them voted for Mr Buhari in 2015 but could now swing the other way.

What about the youth vote?

Nigeria has one of the largest youth populations in the world; however this election has again made it clear that national politics remain dominated by the older generation. In 2018, a bill buoyed by the #NotTooYoungToRun campaign, was signed into law, allowing politicians as young as 30 to run for the presidency. This year 10 candidates under the age of 40 have out their names forward. Chike Ukaegbu, the youngest candidate is 35 and is running on an education platform. 

Blogger and member of the #NotTooYoungToRun campaign, Maryam Laushi, however believes that the top candidates, Buhari and Abubakar, do not provide young people with a clear enough choice.

How are the votes counted?

The candidate with the most votes wins as long as they have at least 25% of the vote in two-thirds of the 36 states and the capital, Abuja.

Otherwise there is a run-off.

Voter turnout in the 2015 election was 29.4 million, or 44% of the 67.4 million registered voters, and for 2019 the number of registered voters has risen to 

84 million, just over half of them aged 18-35.

But there have been some concerns that youth turnout might suffer due to the age of the main candidates, and some who travelled at great expense to vote last week may struggle to do so again.

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